Do Polls Matter?

It’s easy to assume that when a television news program or newspaper report the results of a survey, that both the process and the results have merit. We expect it to be a true sampling of citizens.

There are those, however, who don't believe in polls. Especially if their personal opinions differ significantly.

Identifying correct polling data has had to change during the past several years. The two greatest factors that may affect the results are the Do Not Call list, which contains many working people, who tired of receiving phone calls at dinner time. It also excludes those whose only telephone connection is by a cell phone.

So the outcome (results) are affected solely by those who choose to answer the phone. If 600 people are polled, how diverse are they? Has the pollster included factors that cross race, age, education, political parties, religious and income levels? Or do we assume accuracy because their report is read during a newscast?

Does the poll only include English speaking people? Is it fair to exclude others for that reason alone instead of offering it in another language? Don't their opinions matter too?

How honest are the respondents? From where do they obtain the information that frames their thinking?

What about the polling organization itself? Might its results be tainted, or used to sway public opinion on behalf of whomever is paying for the results?

How was the poll conducted? Was it a live person or robocall? How were the questions shaped?How much bias or error is considered acceptable?

According to wikipedia:

"Over time, a number of theories and mechanisms have been offered to explain erroneous polling results. Some of these reflect errors on the part of the pollsters; many of them are statistical in nature. Others blame the respondents for not giving candid answers; these can be more controversial.

Since some people do not answer calls from strangers, or refuse to answer the poll, poll samples may not be representative samples from a population. Because of this selection bias, the characteristics of those who agree to be interviewed may be markedly different from those who decline."

Who is conducting the poll, the purpose and the respondents, should be considered before accepting the outcome. And we must remember that the results represent only a small fraction of people, whose opinions are likely to change daily, due to circumstance.